Does Alex Ovechkin even have a shot at breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time objectives file?

Washington Capitals star Alex Ovechkin positioned his title amongst a number of the greats in NHL historical past (once more) earlier in November when he scored the 742nd objective of his skilled profession. Ovechkin scored the historic objective on the 10:19 mark of the primary interval of a sport towards the Columbus Blue Jackets.

With that objective, Ovi handed Brett Hull for fourth place on the NHL’s all-time objectives listing. The largest query now could be: the place will the Caps famous person be on that all-time objectives listing when he decides to retire? 

Throughout the 2021-22 season up to now, Ovechkin has racked up 12 objectives and registered a degree in all however three video games. For the reason that season started, Ovechkin has handed Marcel Dionne and Hull on the all-time objectives listing. The Capitals winger handed Dionne for fifth place on the all-time listing in a two-goal efficiency within the group’s season opener.

Subsequent up on the all-time objectives listing is Jaromir Jagr. Ovechkin would want to attain 25 objectives the remainder of the season with a view to cross Jagr’s mark of 766. Contemplating that Ovechkin has scored not less than 48 objectives in three of the previous 4 seasons, that mark is definitely reachable — barring any prolonged accidents. Final season, the league was restricted to only 56 video games as a result of COVID-19 pandemic and Ovechkin registered simply 24 objectives. As now you can see, Ovi passing Jagr is probably going a foregone conclusion.

With the ability to catch Wayne Gretzky’s all-time objectives file of 894 tallies is not as clear minimize.

When you’re doing the mathematics at residence, Ovechkin presently sits 152 objectives behind Gretzky. Proper now, Gretzky has performed in 275 extra video games than Ovechkin. Gretzky averaged 0.60 goals-per-game over the course of his profession, whereas Ovechkin presently owns a common of 0.61 goals-per-game.

This is a take a look at Ovechkin’s numbers from the final 5 seasons, to clarify how prolific his scoring clip his has been as he will get older:

  • 2017-18 season: 49 objectives and 0.60 goals-per-game in 82 video games
  • 2018-19 season: 51 objectives and 0.63 goals-per-game in 81 video games
  • 2019-20 season: 48 objectives and 0.71 goals-per-game in 68 video games
  • 2021 season: 24 objectives and 0.53 goals-per-game in 45 video games
  • 2021-22 season: 12 objectives and 0.80 goals-per-game in 15 video games

Via 15 video games, Ovechkin is almost averaging a objective per contest. It is unlikely that Ovechkin will sustain that tempo over the course of the complete season, nevertheless.. 

So, let’s simply say that Ovechkin averages 0.60 goals-per-game over the course of the 2021-22 common season. Over the ultimate 67 common season video games, that might put him at an estimated 40 extra objectives, which supplies him 52 for the marketing campaign. In every of the previous three full common seasons, the Capitals star has accrued not less than 48 objectives in every of these seasons — in order that estimation is not too unbelievable. 

If we take that 0.60 goals-per-game clip and common that out, Ovechkin might break Gretzky’s file in the course of the 2023-24 or 2024-25 season. That is assuming that he averages an estimated 52 goals-per-game in that timeframe. Clearly, that will not occur as a result of Ovechkin is up into his late 30s.

However, it nearly looks as if Ovechkin will get higher with age, so it is not out of the realm of prospects. 

Even when Ovechkin scores simply 40 objectives in every of the following 4 seasons (together with the 2021-22 marketing campaign), that’ll put him at 148 objectives since he already has 12 objectives this season … which might imply that he would solely want 5 extra with a view to break Gretzky’s file assuming he will get 40 on the nostril in every of these seasons.

It is price noting that Ovechkin is having an MVP-caliber season this 12 months and that is with out playmaker Nicklas Backstrom, who has but to play this season attributable to a hip harm, beside him. It is positively not out of the realm of prospects for Ovechkin to attain not less than 50 objectives, particularly if Backstrom returns within the close to future.

Well being is the most important impediment in Ovechkin’s quest to interrupt Gretzky’s file. If he retains enjoying at an elite stage, the extent he mainly has performed at since his first NHL sport in 2005, there is not any doubt that the Capitals winger can rating essentially the most objectives within the historical past of the game.

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