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Greatest NFL Thanksgiving bets 2021: Prime performs on level unfold, whole and participant props for vacation video games


Blissful Thanksgiving to all. For some, this vacation is about reconnecting with family members and having fun with pumpkin pie. For others, it is about placing on a cheerful face for the in-laws whereas maintaining one eye on the TV and the opposite in your Caesar Sportsbook app. Prefer it or not, Thanksgiving is popping into an NFL playing vacation, very like the Tremendous Bowl. It is a big day the place you’ll be able to zero in on three video games and add some financial pleasure to what’s already presupposed to be a big day. 

Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys-Las Vegas Raiders after which the Buffalo Payments-New Orleans Saints nightcap. It ought to be a enjoyable day, and between spreads, Over/Unders and participant props, there are many alternatives to show your Thanksgiving right into a profitable one. Let’s check out some bets we’re excessive on. 

All NFL odds through Caesars Sportsbook  

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)

Newest Odds:

Chicago Bears
-3

This primary vacation matchup has to do with the quarterbacks, as Andy Dalton will begin rather than Justin Fields after the rookie suffered a ribs harm, whereas the Lions sound like they’re able to return Jared Goff to the beginning lineup after he missed final recreation. Whereas Fields is the long run and a younger participant with an extremely excessive ceiling, Dalton really has the higher hand in a number of statistical classes when he is on the sphere. In keeping with TruMedia, with Dalton beneath heart, the Bears are averaging .5 extra yards per play, .7 extra yards per rush, the sack share is down from 16 to 7 and Dalton is also changing 12% extra third downs.

These two groups met in Week 4, when the Bears recorded a 24-14 victory. Chicago relied on the run recreation, and rushed for 188 yards on 39 carries — probably the most dashing yards in a single recreation all season for the Bears. It is truthful to anticipate this could possibly be the sport plan right here once more in Week 12, however Chicago may also have to organize for the Lions’ star operating again. D’Andre Swift has rushed for over 130 yards in every of the final two contests, and may damage defenses as a receiving again as effectively.

The Complete is so low at 41.5 that I will both not contact it or take a flier on the Over. This can be a unfold I would not contact both. I’ve a lean to the favorites in Chicago because the Bears are 4-1 ATS vs. groups with a dropping report, however with quarterback adjustments, I am not betting the home on this one. 

Prediction: Bears (-3) 24-20 over Lions

A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting information

David Montgomery whole dashing yards: Over 77.5 (-115). Detroit is without doubt one of the worst run defenses within the NFL, averaging 140.5 yards per recreation on the bottom. These numbers are even worse if you have a look at the Lions’ final three video games (188.3 yards dashing per recreation). This units up Montgomery properly to have a breakout efficiency since getting back from injured reserve. 

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Newest Odds:

Dallas Cowboys
-7.5

The Cowboys are coming off of a deflating, 19-9 loss to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs final week, however return house for the vacation –where they’re 6-1 ATS of their final seven video games in Arlington. We could not have a pulse on how official a contender the Cowboys are at this level within the season, however they nonetheless look like one of many higher groups within the NFC. They need to be capable to defeat a reeling Raiders membership on Thanksgiving.

Derek Carr’s squad has been by means of lots this season with the Jon Gruden and Henry Ruggs III sagas. Whereas the Raiders put collectively a three-game win streak after Gruden’s exit, Vegas has now misplaced two straight by double digits. You’ll suppose that this Cowboys offense can present up and drop some critical factors on the Raiders, however Dallas’ offense statistically hasn’t been as nice over the previous few weeks, and Dak Prescott will likely be with out Amari Cooper and probably CeeDee Lamb. 

My lean is to the Cowboys, however I might take into account shopping for a full level. I feel my technique will likely be to purchase the Cowboys down and place them in a same-game parlay with a few different alternate participant props. I’ve a lean to the Beneath as effectively, because the Beneath is 4-0 within the Cowboys’ final 4 video games. 

Prediction: Cowboys (-7.5) 30-21 over Raiders

A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting information

Dalton Schultz whole receiving yards: Over 49.5 (-120). With Cooper and probably Lamb out for this recreation, their targets might want to go someplace and Schultz is third on the staff in targets on the season. He additionally has a robust matchup in opposition to the Raiders, who’re permitting opposing tight ends to common over 66 receiving yards per recreation on roughly 10.6 yards per reception. 

Buffalo Payments (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments
-6.5

The Payments have been blasted by the Indianapolis Colts 41-15 on Sunday, however quarterback Josh Allen says they’re lucky to be taking part in on a brief week to allow them to shortly flip their consideration to a different opponent. The Saints are struggling proper now, as Sean Payton could must revisit beginning Trevor Siemian. To go together with quarterback points, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are injured, as are a number of members of the offensive line. 

Whereas I am not bullish on the spreads for the primary two Thanksgiving video games, I’m on this one. Payments -6 is one in all my prime 5 picks of the week. In keeping with TruMedia, the Saints have lined up in man protection on 36 p.c of their defensive snaps this season, which is the sixth-highest charge within the NFL. Allen has been probably the greatest quarterbacks in opposition to man protection this season, as he has a completion share of 63% (ninth-highest amongst 34 certified quarterbacks), 7.7 yards per cross try (Tenth-most amongst certified quarterbacks), and has thrown eight touchdowns in opposition to man protection (tied for seventh-most amongst certified quarterbacks).

Prediction: Payments (-6) 28-20

A prop from Tyler Sullivan’s betting information

Devin Singletary whole dashing yards: Over 24.5 (-115). Singletary is averaging practically double this prop on the season and has gone over this whole in eight of his 10 video games performed this season. The Saints additionally simply allowed two completely different backs (and Jalen Hurts) to hurry for over 60 yards final week. 

Particular Thanksgiving prop bets

Most Turkey Day passing yards

Dak Prescott +220
Josh Allen +220
Derek Carr +260
Trevor Siemian +1200
Andy Dalton +1200
Tim Boyle +1400

I really like these Thanksgiving specials, and this one is fairly intriguing. I am not anticipating any type of wild upset right here, because the winner has to lie in that prime three. I would sprinkle on Allen and Carr, and root for one in all them to come back out on prime. 

Most Turkey Day dashing yards

David Montgomery +350
Alvin Kamara +350
Mark Ingram +400
Ezekiel Elliott +425
D’Andre Swift +450
Josh Jacobs +550
Tony Pollard +600

I feel Elliott or Swift have a official likelihood to win this wager.

Highest scoring staff on Thursday

Dallas Cowboys +160
Buffalo Payments +300
Las Vegas Raiders +600
Chicago Bears +700
New Orleans Saints +750
Detroit Lions +1200

As acknowledged above, I am fairly assured within the Payments. I feel they’re getting good worth right here at +300 as effectively. 

Greatest bets

1. Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yards: Over 32.5 (-115). St. Brown is without doubt one of the extra underrated rookies on this class as a result of he performs for a winless staff, however he is had no less than 46 yards receiving in every of the final two video games with Goff.

2. Daniel Carlson Over 1.5 made subject targets (+130). Carlson has made no less than two subject targets in 4 out of the previous 5 video games. Harrison Butker made two in opposition to the Cowboys final week and Brandon McManus of the Denver Broncos made three in opposition to Dallas a few weeks in the past. I like that we’re getting plus cash right here.

3. Josh Allen Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-170). It is positively juicy, however throw it in a same-game parlay if you would like.  

Lottery ticket props

1. David Montgomery to attain two or extra touchdowns (+300). Montgomery rushed for 2 touchdowns the final time he performed Detroit.

2. Ezekiel Elliott first landing scorer (+460). Elliott has had some strong Thanksgiving video games and could possibly be in line for one more this 12 months.

3. Final landing scorer: Josh Allen (+900). Perhaps an Allen dashing landing on the very finish of the sport places this one out of attain. 





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