NFL Week 13 odds, picks: Steelers upset Ravens, Patriots beat Payments to stay AFC East’s high group

I am undecided how a lot meals I ate over Thanksgiving Weekend, however I am fairly certain I gained roughly 17 kilos, which is sort of a coincidence, as a result of I believe that is additionally what number of picks I acquired unsuitable in Week 12. Certain, there weren’t even 17 video games performed and the maths would not add up in any respect, however whenever you eat turkey for 5 meals a day for 5 straight days, nothing is sensible. 

The one excellent news to return out of the weekend for me is that I did not catch COVID, however sadly, the identical cannot be stated for the Cowboys. The group is coping with a mini-COVID outbreak, which goes to maintain Mike McCarthy from teaching on Thursday after he examined constructive. 

Apparently, COVID went after everybody over Thanksgiving, as a result of there are going to be quite a lot of key gamers lacking from quite a lot of groups this week. 

If my picks are dangerous this week, I blame COVID. 

Alright, let’s get to the Week 13 picks. 

Really, earlier than we get to the picks, this is a fast reminder that you could take a look at the weekly picks from each NFL knowledgeable by clicking right here. If you happen to do not click on over, I will not be offended. Nevertheless, I might be offended when you do not join’s NFL publication, which I am in command of. 

If you happen to do join, it is like an early Christmas current for each of us: I get extra sign-ups and also you get an electronic mail from me 5 days per week, which suggests signing up is absolutely like 5 presents in a single. If you wish to subscribe, all you should do is click on right here and enter your electronic mail tackle. I promise to not spam you and I promise to not ship you photos of my cat.

Additionally, I would really like you guys to know that I recorded a podcast on Monday night time with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson and we spent 45 extremely entertaining minutes debating whether or not the Seahawks ought to take into consideration blowing issues up and beginning over. Russell Wilson needs out. Pete Carroll is on the unsuitable aspect of 70. And it simply feels prefer it is likely to be time for the transfer on to the subsequent chapter. If you wish to pay attention, and also you undoubtedly ought to, you are able to do that under. 

Alright, let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 13 Picks

L.A. Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati (7-4)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals

We’re 13 weeks into the season and I’ve to confess, I nonetheless do not know what to make of the Chargers. Each time you suppose the Chargers are about to show the nook and develop into a Tremendous Bowl contender, they exit and fall flat on their face. If they’d crushed the Broncos on Sunday, they’d have been in first place heading into Week 13, however as a substitute, they acquired embarrassed. I additionally acquired embarrassed as a result of I picked them to win. 

The Chargers began the season 4-1, however they’re simply 2-4 since then. I am not precisely certain why the Chargers have fallen aside over the previous few weeks, however my predominant working concept is that it is as a result of they’re the Chargers and falling aside is what they do. 

One motive they’re falling aside is as a result of they cannot cease the run. I now know why Chargers coach Brandon Staley goes for it on a regular basis on fourth down and it is clearly as a result of he needs to do every thing doable to verify his protection would not ever get on the sphere, as a result of in the event that they’re on the sphere, that implies that Chargers are in all probability going to lose. Via 12 weeks, the Chargers are surrendering 145.3 speeding yards per recreation, which is ridiculously dangerous when you think about that no different group within the NFL is even surrendering 136 yards per recreation. On the subject of having a foul run protection, the Chargers are the most effective within the NFL, besides being the most effective right here really means you are the worst, so it is not likely one thing you wish to brag about. 

If the Bengals are good, they will simply give the ball to Joe Mixon 47 occasions on this recreation. I actually wish to choose the Bengals right here…. Nevertheless, I’m barely apprehensive about choosing in opposition to the Chargers and that is as a result of that is an odd-numbered week and the Chargers NEVER lose in odd-numbered weeks. For some motive, they neglect the right way to play soccer throughout even-numbered weeks, however throughout odd numbered-weeks, they’re the 1985 Bears. 

In odd week video games this season, the Chargers are 5-0 whereas averaging 33.0 factors per recreation. Nevertheless, in even week video games, they’re 1-5 with a median of 18 factors per recreation. It is like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Really, I take that again, it is extra just like the “Quick and the Livid” motion pictures. As somebody who has seen each “Quick and the Livid” film not less than 19 occasions, I can let you know for a truth that each one the odd-numbered motion pictures are good and all of the even-numbered ones are horrible, which mainly sums up the Chargers whole 2021 season thus far. I am beginning to suppose the Chargers would possibly wish to have a “Quick and the Livid” marathon or one thing in the event that they wish to finish this even-number week curse. By the best way, when you’ve by no means seen a “Quick and Livid” film, I like to recommend beginning with the fifth one as a result of it is the one one I am in. 

The Chargers are 5-0 in odd weeks, the Bengals are at the moment the fifth-seed within the AFC playoffs and I used to be in “Quick 5.” I am beginning to really feel like 5 is a theme right here, so I will take the Bengals by 5 in a recreation that is fittingly being performed on December 5. 

The choose: Bengals 31-26 over Chargers. 

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Washington (5-6) at Las Vegas (6-5)

4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)

Newest Odds:

Las Vegas Raiders

We’re 13 weeks into the season and I’ve to confess, I nonetheless do not know what I am doing relating to choosing Washington’s video games. They’ve performed 11 video games and thus far, I am 3-8 choosing these video games. On the subject of choosing Washington video games, it would not matter who they’re enjoying, it would not matter who’s favored to win, it doesn’t matter what I choose, the alternative goes to occur. if I choose them to win, they’ll lose. If I choose them to lose they’ll win. Nevertheless, I’ve a secret weapon this week and that weapon is a magic coin. 

Earlier than the 2021 season began, somebody on Reddit determined to simulate the Raiders whole season by flipping a coin to find out the winner of every recreation and all I’ve to say is that this coin is healthier at predicting video games than I’m. Via 12 weeks, the coin is an ideal 11-0 predicting Raiders’ video games. 

My private document choosing Raiders’ video games this yr is 5-6, so clearly I am in no place to be doubting what the coin says and the coin says the Raiders are going to win. The coin picked the Raiders to beat the Cowboys and now it’s choosing the Raiders to beat Washington. 

That being stated, if the Raiders do not win, we will go forward and blame me. On the subject of choosing Washington video games, I am virtually all the time unsuitable so there is a 50% probability that I will jinx the magical coin out of existence by choosing the Raiders right here. 

For the document, if the coin did not exist, I in all probability would nonetheless go along with the Raiders right here. They’re averaging 296.5 yards via the air this yr, which is the second most within the NFL and so they’ll be going up in opposition to a Washington protection that may’t cease the move. Additionally, Washington is 0-4 in opposition to AFC groups this yr and I am beginning to suppose they only cannot beat any group from that convention. 

If the Raiders do win and coin finally ends up being proper once more, they need to actually give some severe thought of presumably hiring the coin as their subsequent coach. 

The choose: Raiders 30-23 over Washington. All hail the coin. 

Baltimore (8-3) at Pittsburgh (5-5-1)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

Newest Odds:

Baltimore Ravens

I will be sincere right here, I do not know what to make of this recreation. On one hand, you may have the Steelers, who I am fairly certain gave up about halfway via the third quarter in opposition to the Bengals on Sunday. The Steelers used to have a vaunted protection, however I do not suppose it qualifies as vaunted anymore after giving up 41 factors in EACH of the previous two weeks.  

As for the Ravens, they are going into Sunday after per week the place Lamar Jackson performed arguably the worst recreation of his profession. Jackson was downright terrible in opposition to the Browns, however the Ravens had been nonetheless capable of win as a result of the Browns determined to start out a quarterback who mainly has the identical quantity of accidents as somebody who was simply hit by a bus. The one factor that is been worse than the Steelers protection over the previous few weeks is the Ravens offense. 

Over their previous three video games, the Ravens have averaged simply 14 factors per recreation. The Ravens offense has progressively been getting worse since Week 10 when Baltimore acquired blown out by the Dolphins, who determined to blitz Lamar on almost each play. That does not imply the Steelers are going to try this, however it does imply that Mike Tomlin will in all probability implement a few of that into his defensive recreation plan. 

At 5-5-1, the Steelers season mainly hangs within the steadiness this week. In the event that they lose, they’re undoubtedly not successful the AFC North and so they’re doubtless not making the playoffs. I don’t like to select in opposition to determined groups, particularly after they’re enjoying at dwelling in opposition to a division rival. The Steelers are one among solely two groups within the NFL that Lamar Jackson would not have a successful document in opposition to — he is 1-1 — and I do not suppose that is going to alter after this week. 

The choose: Steelers 19-16 over Ravens. 

New England (8-4) at Buffalo (7-4)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Newest Odds:

Buffalo Payments

Based mostly on what I find out about Payments followers, there is a 97% probability that this Monday goes to go down because the top-selling day ever within the historical past of the folding desk trade. This is among the largest common season video games that the Payments have ever hosted and you may guess that Payments followers are going to reply appropriately by spending their day leaping via folding tables which have been set on hearth. 

Not solely will first place within the AFC East be on the road on this recreation, however this can even mark the FIRST TIME in franchise historical past that the Payments have hosted a Monday night time recreation within the month of December. I am guessing the Payments did not get any earlier than this as a result of the NFL doubtless assumed that people could not survive outdoors for greater than 9 seconds throughout a December night time in Buffalo, which is a good assumption. 

These two groups met on a December Monday night time in New England final yr and the Payments ended up fully destroying the Patriots 38-9, which in hindsight might need been a foul concept, as a result of now, I really feel like Invoice Belichick would love nothing greater than to completely embarrass the Payments on nationwide tv, and if anybody can completely embarrass the Payments, it is Belichick. The person has mainly made a profession out of embarrassing the Payments. 

Over the previous 15 years, Belichick is 25-5 in opposition to Buffalo. Though the Patriots acquired swept final yr, they nonetheless virtually pulled off an upset of their first assembly with the Payments, which was a 24-21 Buffalo win. Even in the course of an enormous rebuild, Belichick virtually beat the Payments. When the Patriots went on their massive free agent spending spree through the offseason, I am 99% certain that each transfer they made was accomplished with the only objective of making certain that they’d be capable of destroy the Payments this yr. 

I do not suppose they’ll destroy the Payments on Monday night time, however I do suppose Belichick goes to go away Buffalo with a win. 

The choose: Patriots 23-20 over Payments. 

NFL Week 13 picks: All the remainder

Cowboys 24-17 over Saints
Buccaneers 34-24 over Falcons
Cardinals 27-17 over Bears
Vikings 23-16 over Lions
Dolphins 30-20 over Giants
Eagles 27-20 over Jets
Colts 31-17 over Texans
Rams 27-16 over Jaguars
49ers 31-24 over Seahawks
Chiefs 30-17 over Broncos

BYES: Browns, Titans, Packers, Panthers

Final Week

Greatest choose: Final week, I predicted that the Packers would upset the Rams in Inexperienced Bay and guess what occurred? The Packers upset the Rams in Inexperienced Bay, which was essentially the most predictable recreation ever. If hundreds of years of human civilization has taught us one factor, it is that individuals who do not reside in chilly climate hate chilly climate. Additionally, individuals who reside in California hate touring to anywhere that is not California. Whenever you mix these two issues with the truth that Matthew Stafford has immediately changed into a pick-six machine, there was no manner the Rams had been successful. If you happen to’re questioning how dangerous the pick-sixes have gotten with Stafford, he now has the longest pick-six streak of any quarterback since 2013 and he is additionally now thrown the sixth-most pick-sixes in NFL historical past (26). 

Worst choose: I used to be occupied with taking a trip to Florida subsequent yr, however not now, as a result of I HATE FLORIDA after what occurred to me in Week 12. There are three NFL groups situated in Florida and I whiffed on each single one among their video games. I picked the Colts to beat the Buccaneers. I picked the Jaguars to beat the Falcons and I picked the Panthers to beat the Dolphins. None of these issues occurred. My picks had been so dangerous that I will not be shocked if I get banned from all the state for the remainder of my life. My 19-month outdated daughter will in all probability be unhappy that we’ll by no means get to go to Disney World, however when she hears how dangerous my picks had been, she’ll perceive. 

Lastly, when you guys have ever questioned which groups I am really good at choosing, this is a fast look: 

Groups I am 9-2 choosing this yr: Texans, 49ers, Rams, Lions, Steelers (8-2-1), Colts (10-2)
Longest present streak of choosing a group’s video games accurately: Steelers (8-0-1 since Week 3)

Groups I have been the worst at choosing this yr: Saints (3-8), Washington (3-8). 
Longest energetic streak of choosing a group’s video games unsuitable: Broncos (0-6 since Week 6 after going 5-0 choosing their video games to start out the season)

Picks Document

Straight up in Week 12: 7-8 (0-3 choosing Florida groups, 7-5 choosing everybody else)
SU general: 108-71-1

In opposition to the unfold in Week 12: 6-9
ATS general: 87-90-3 

Actual rating predictions: 3
Actual rating, unsuitable winner: 2

Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a kind of issues, he is in all probability watching Quick 5 for the forty seventh time this week. 

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