Federal Election 2022 – ?

Essay by Eric Worrall

Though the mud hasn’t totally settled, its wanting more and more possible Australia may have one of many greenest governments in our historical past, after the panicked final minute conservative try to embrace Web Zero spectacularly backfired, and led to a string of losses to “Teal Independents”. However Australia is about to face some very severe financial issues which inexperienced ideology can’t repair.

Who’re the independents possible headed to parliament after election night time’s ‘teal tub’?

By political reporter Jake Evans

Election night time is shaping as a powerful victory for a gaggle of independents who’ve challenged each events to do extra on local weather change and accountability.

Key factors:

  • Liberal MPs Tim Wilson, Trent Zimmerman and Jason Falinski are more likely to lose to independents
  • A handful of latest independents might turn into the ability brokers within the subsequent parliament
  • Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s seat of Kooyong has not been known as

The so-called “teal independents” are candidates contesting in usually protected Liberal seats on a platform of larger local weather motion and implementing a federal integrity fee.

These candidates have been backed by a well-funded campaigning machine known as Local weather 200, which raised about $12 million from greater than 11,000 donors.

And whereas most of those independents are difficult established Liberal politicians, Labor is additionally being attentive to the rise of so many independents.

Learn extra:

The Teal independents, who’ve challenged and seem in some circumstances to have defeated internal metropolis heartland Conservatives, have introduced as economically reasonable deep greens. Scott Morrison tried to outflank them with a final minute change to supporting Web Zero late final yr, nevertheless it seems internal metropolis voters selected actual greens over the counterfeit. All ScoMo’s Web Zero push did was alienate supporters elsewhere, who expressed that disappointment by voting for minor events and independents.

The Teals, who could maintain the stability of energy within the incoming authorities, obtained substantial monetary and logistical help from Local weather 200, which was based by and is led by billionaire mining and renewable power entrepreneur Simon Holmes à Courtroom. So I don’t suppose we have to guess what coverage positions they are going to push.

The incoming Left Wing labor authorities will possible want the help of the Teals and Inexperienced Social gathering to type authorities. They already overtly again large funding in inexperienced power, having to please inexperienced coalition companions will simply verify this tendency.

The query in my thoughts is how the brand new authorities will deal with some very actual issues that are growing.

The politically motivated lack of funding in Australia’s ageing coal energy fleet has precipitated wholesale energy costs to double during the last yr. No one invests cash in plant and gear which might face imminent shutdown or punitive taxes.

The outgoing coalition authorities was toying with the thought of a authorities funded fossil gas energy plant, however I by some means doubt the incoming authorities will proceed that coverage – their coverage place is the ability value will increase have been brought on by lack of funding in renewables.

There’s the matter of the approaching meals disaster. The Ukraine conflict has triggered an increase in fertiliser costs and a drop within the worldwide provide of grain. Australia, a serious main meals producer, could also be much less badly hit than some locations, however we produce little or no gas or fertiliser, so we are going to really feel the total influence of worldwide value rises in these commodities. Fertiliser manufacturing requires a lot of low cost power, and we’ve seen treasured little of that currently. Even when Australia maintains meals manufacturing, bizarre Australians will nonetheless really feel the worth rises. And as international shortages loom, there can be robust incentives to money in on the profitable abroad market.

Then there may be the matter of coal. The one purpose Australia has retained a stage of economic stability the previous few years is booming mineral and coal exports. Coal alone contributes 10s of billions of {dollars} to our stability of commerce and export earnings. However a deep inexperienced authorities might finish all that. In fact, because the Chinese language financial system collapses underneath an insane collection of Covid lockdowns and their actual property market collapse, as Europe embraces economically suicidal inexperienced insurance policies, and because the USA sags underneath Bidenflation, it appears possible demand for our mineral exports will sag, even with out damaging insurance policies imposed by deep inexperienced zealots. The rise in international meals costs gained’t assist repair this – see my level about gas and fertiliser costs undermining agricultural earnings.

Add to this the embarrassing financial ignorance of our possible new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who not too long ago defined one of the simplest ways to combat inflation is beneficiant wage rises.

I worry Australia could possibly be in for a tough experience. I don’t suppose we’ll go full Sri Lanka, however its going to be an fascinating few years.

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