How Lengthy Has He Been Standing There? – ?

Visitor “Scale and context” by David Middleton

I simply observed this 2019 Time journal cowl in a LinkedIn submit this morning. CTM coated it again in 2019 when he reposted Michael Bastasch’s Day by day Caller article highlighting the truth that Tuvalu has really grown in space over the previous fifty years, whereas it was supposedly being inundated by catastrophic sea degree rise.

UN Chief Poses For TIME Cowl Off ‘Sinking’ Pacific Island Nation That’s Truly Rising In Dimension

June 13, 2019

The most recent TIME journal cowl options United Nations chief António Guterres standing in water off the island nation of Tuvalu, which the outlet referred to as “one of many world’s most weak international locations” to international warming.

The picture, taken throughout Guterres’ four-country tour of Pacific nations in Could, is supposed for example one level — that island nations are sinking within the face of worldwide warming-induced sea-level rise.

TIME titled it’s Thursday cowl story, “Our Sinking Planet.” There’s only one downside: Scientific research present Tavalu’s islands, certainly most Pacific islands, have really grown within the face of sea degree rise.


The Day by day Caller

Mr. Bastasch completely demolished Time magazines local weather porn, however he by no means utilized scale and context to the journal cowl. The Day by day Caller article included a modified model of the duvet, exhibiting Mr. Guterres in practically shoulder-deep water.

The Day by day Caller

The precise cowl solely confirmed Mr. Guterres in knee-deep water. Both approach, the implication appears to be that sea degree was rising sooner than Mr. Guterres may transfer inland, nevertheless there was nonetheless no context… How a lot had sea degree risen whereas Mr. Guterres was standing there and the way lengthy did it take? As a geologist, I simply needed to apply scale and context to the picture… Every time a geologist takes {a photograph} of an individual, it’s just for scale.

Assuming that the Time journal cowl is implying that Mr. Guterres was standing at sea degree earlier than ExxonMobil induced the seas to rise so quick that he’s now as much as his knees in catastrophic sea degree rise, we should always be capable of calculate how lengthy he had been standing there.

We have to know two issues:

  • Mr. Guterres top
  • The water depth at his location

In line with this supply, his top is 170 cm (~5’7″). Utilizing this chart of brief actors from Quora, we will estimate that the water depth is ~1’6″ (~46 cm)… Mr. Guterres falls proper in between Iron Man (5’8″) and Jack Black (5’6″).

So, now we all know that sea degree will need to have risen by about 46 cm (460 mm) whereas Mr. Guterres was standing there.

Sadly, Tuvalu doesn’t have an excellent tide gauge file.

Happily, NOAA lists a tide gauge station about 4 miles southwest of the UN Headquarters at The Battery, with a steady long-term file. Since Mr. Guterres in all probability spends extra time in New York Metropolis than he does in Tuvalu, we’ll go along with The Battery.

Sea degree at The Battery has been steadily rising on the terrifying fee of two.89 mm/yr since no less than 1856.

At this fee, it might have taken simply over 158 years for sea degree to rise from the soles of Mr. Guterres footwear as much as his knees.

  • 457.2 mm ÷ 2.89 mm/yr = 158.20 yr

What would Mr. Guterres’ loitering for this picture op have price the US taxpayer? The UN Secretary Common’s wage is $227,253 per 12 months. Amazingly, the Secretary Common hasn’t gotten a increase since 1997. US taxpayers foot about 22% of the UN’s invoice.

  • $227,253/yr x 158.2 yr = $35,951,582
  • $35,951,582 x 22% = $7,909,348

In comparison with the return we usually get on our UN “funding,” spending about $8 million to relocate the Secretary Common to Tuvalu, looks as if a cut price.

What did Mr. Guterres should say about local weather change?

“We appear trapped in a world the place fossil gasoline producers and financiers have humanity by the throat. For many years, many within the fossil gasoline trade has invested closely in pseudo-science and public relations – with a false narrative to attenuate their duty for local weather change and undermine formidable local weather insurance policies. They exploited exactly the identical scandalous ways as Large Tobacco a long time earlier than. Like tobacco pursuits, fossil gasoline pursuits and their monetary accomplices should not escape duty. The argument of placing local weather motion apart to take care of home issues additionally rings hole. Had we invested earlier and massively in renewable power, we’d not discover ourselves as soon as once more on the mercy of unstable fossil gasoline markets. So let’s be sure the conflict in Ukraine is just not used to extend that dependency. At present’s most urgent home issues – like inflation and fuel costs – are themselves local weather and fossil gasoline issues”


What a load of horst schist!

Fossil fuels and cigarettes have one factor in frequent: They’re each completely innocent till you stick them in your mouth and lightweight them on hearth. [Note to OCD commenters: Google “sarcasm” before making a dumb comment.]

Had we invested earlier and massively in renewable power, we’d not discover ourselves as soon as once more on the mercy of unstable fossil gasoline markets.


Investing massively in altering the legal guidelines of physics would have been as pointless as standing in knee-deep water for 158 years and scowling at ExxonMobil.

We’ve by no means transitioned from one type of power to a different; we simply pile new sources on prime of the previous sources and use them extra effectively, with much less affect on the atmosphere. We burn virtually as a lot biomass now as we did after we began burning coal; we simply now not depend on whale oil as a significant part of that biomass.

Bjorn Lomborg, LinkedIn

Mr. Guterres… This can be a plot of common international life expectancy overlaid on per capita power consumption, principally fossil fuel-derived power, since 1800:

From 1800 to 1900, per capita power consumption, primarily from biomass, remained comparatively flat; as did the common life expectancy. From 1900 to 1978, per capita power consumption roughly tripled with the fast progress in fossil gasoline manufacturing (coal, oil & fuel). This was accompanied by a doubling of common life expectancy. Whereas I can’t say that fossil fuels induced the rise in life expectancy, I can unequivocally state that all the pieces that enabled the rise in life expectancy wouldn’t have existed or occurred with out fossil fuels, significantly petroleum.

Our fashionable society wouldn’t exist with out fossil fuels and it might collapse in a heartbeat if fossil fuels have been made unavailable and/or unaffordable.

Mr. Guterres… That is Information laughing at you:

Who the Hell is António Guterres anyway?

Apparently he’s a Marxist politician who has by no means held an actual job in his total life.

He attended the Camões Lyceum (now Camões Secondary Faculty), the place he graduated in 1965, profitable the Nationwide Lyceums Award (Prémio Nacional dos Liceus) as the perfect pupil within the nation. He studied physics and electrical engineering at Instituto Superior Técnico – Technical College of Lisbon in Lisbon. He graduated in 1971 and began a tutorial profession as an assistant professor educating methods concept and telecommunications indicators, earlier than leaving educational life to begin a political profession.[6]


Guterres’s political profession started in 1974, when he turned a member of the Socialist Social gathering. Shortly thereafter, he stop educational life and have become a full-time politician. Within the interval following the Carnation Revolution of 25 April 1974 that put an finish to Caetano’s dictatorship, Guterres turned concerned in Socialist Social gathering management…


For a few years Mr. Guterres was lively within the Socialist Worldwide, a worldwide group of social democratic political events. He was the group’s vice-president from 1992 to 1999, co-chairing the African Committee and later the Growth Committee. He served as President from 1999 till mid-2005. As well as, he based the Portuguese Refugee Council in addition to the Portuguese Shoppers Affiliation DECO, and served as president of the Centro de Acção Social Universitário, an affiliation finishing up social growth initiatives in poor neighbourhoods of Lisbon, within the early Seventies.

United Nations

Mr. Guterres and the editors of Time journal have collectively earned a Billy Madison lifetime achievement award.


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