ENSO Influence on the Declining CO2 Sink Charge – ?

From Dr. Roy Spencer’s International Warming Weblog

Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

SUMMARY: A easy time-dependent CO2 finances mannequin exhibits that yearly anthropogenic emissions in comparison with Mauna Loa CO2 measurements offers a declining CO2 sink charge, which if continued would improve atmospheric CO2 concentrations and presumably anthropogenic local weather change. However accounting for ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) exercise throughout 1959-2021 removes the decline. That is opposite to a number of earlier research that claimed to account for ENSO. A preprint of my paper (not but peer reviewed) describing the main points is at ENSO Influence on the Declining CO2 Sink Charge | Earth and Area Science Open Archive (

UPDATE: The CO2 mannequin, with inputs and outputs, is in an Excel spreadsheet right here: CO2-budget-model-with-EIA-growth-cases.

I made a decision that the CO2 mannequin I developed a number of years in the past, and lately reported on right here, was worthy of publication, so I began going via the printed literature on the topic. It is a mandatory first step if you wish to publish a paper and never be embarrassed by reinventing the wheel or claiming one thing others have already “disproved”.

The very first thing I discovered was that my concept that Nature every year removes a set fraction of the distinction between the noticed CO2 focus and a few baseline worth just isn’t new. That concept was first printed in 2013 (see my preprint hyperlink above for particulars), and it’s known as the “CO2 sink charge”.

The second factor I discovered was that the sink charge has (reportedly) been declining, by as a lot as 0.54% (relative) per 12 months, even after accounting for ENSO exercise. However I solely get -0.33% per 12 months (1959-2021) earlier than accounting for ENSO exercise, and — importantly — 0.0% per 12 months after accounting for ENSO.

This final discovering will certainly be controversial, as a result of it may imply CO2 within the ambiance is not going to rise as a lot as international carbon cycle modelers say it’ll. So, I’m posting the mannequin and the datasets used together with the paper preprint at ENSO Influence on the Declining CO2 Sink Charge | Earth and Area Science Open Archive ( The evaluation is sort of easy and I consider defensible. The 2019 paper that obtained -0.54% per 12 months decline within the sink charge makes use of advanced statistical gymnastics, with knowledgeable statistician as a main writer. My evaluation is far less complicated, simpler to know, and (I consider) at the least as defensible.

The paper will likely be submitted to Geophysical Analysis Letters for peer assessment within the subsequent couple days. Within the meantime, I will likely be inviting the researchers who reside and breathe these items to poke holes in my evaluation.

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